UFC 148 Aftermath: A Lesson in Balance

I don't mind a little trash-talking before a fight, but there are limits. You don't threaten to eat your opponent's children a la Mike Tyson, and you don't make any remarks about your opponent's wife. If you do either of those things, you deserve to get wrecked in the ring.

That's exactly what happened to Chael Sonnen on Saturday night at UFC 148. Despite all his prefight bravado, Silva wrecked him. There was no second-guessing a lucky break or judges' scorecards. Silva beat Sonnen so badly, the referee had to step in and save him as he cowered against the cage in the second round.

Sonnen came out at the bell looking as though he were shaking with rage and he fought that way too. He took Silva to the ground early and kept him there in the first round. Despite his manic energy, Sonnen could not really inflict any damage on Silva.

Silva showed calm and ring-poise while fighting from his back. His defense seemed to frustrate Sonnen and make him angrier still.

In the second round, Sonnen's lack of control showed and cost him the fight. He came after Silva aggressively, but could not finish another take-down. Unable to take Silva off his feet again, Sonnen tried to unleash all of his pent-up fury in one spinning backfist. It was telegraphed and wild. Silva saw it coming and easily ducked out of the way.

Sonnen threw it so hard with such little control that he lost his balance and fell down. Silva cam after him hard, scoring a knee to the face and following it up it up with punches. Sonnen's nose looked badly broken. Sonnen's will to fight looked just as badly broken. He looked like a schoolyard bully who doesn't know what to do when someone hits him.

His face looked like a mask of fear as he waited for Silva to strike again. Silva did strike again and again, until the referee stepped in to protect the defenseless Sonnen.

Having been in the ring a few times as an amateur kick-boxer, I don't like to see anyone get hurt in a match, even idiots, but I am glad that Chael Sonnen was beaten and beaten up in this fight. Sonnen crossed the line with his words before the fight. He'll survive his face being battered, and perhaps he'll learn something about balance, both inside the ring and out.

UFC 148: Ortiz vs. Griffin

Looking at Forrest Griffin and Tito Ortiz on the undercard of the Silva vs. Sonnen fight, I'm anticipating that this may be the best fight of the night. I'm certainly looking forward to watching this match at Buffalo Wild Wings in Newington, New Hampshire, tonight. Both men are not afraid to mix it up and neither knows the meaning of the word quit.

Years of Accumulated Damage

This should be a war. Griffin, in past fights, has seemed to get stronger and more aggressive in direct proportion to the amount of beating he receives. The downside to that is that he has accumulated an awful lot of damage over the years.

Ortiz, for his part, has also taken a fair amount of damage over his career, including consecutive knockout losses in his last two fights. Ortiz has lost four of his last five, including the UFC 106 match against Forrest Griffin. Those who beat Ortiz, for the most part, outworked him in the standing game.

Ortiz Outworked by Strikers

Noguiera, Griffin and Evans outscored Ortiz with a combined 172 strikes to Ortiz's 38 over the three fights. Ortiz cannot outscore Griffin if the fight turns into a striking match. It's possible that he could get lucky with a punch or catch Griffin with a knee that puts him out, but it would be more by luck than by design.

Ground and Pound on the Mat

Ortiz needs to get inside Griffin's strikes and turn this fight into a wrestling match. He needs to come in full of fury and maintain it for the entire fight. Neither man, if they come in as well-conditioned and as determined as they have in the past, will tire.

Griffin is no slouch on the ground himself, but if the fight goes to the mat, Ortiz will have the advantage with his trademark ground and pound. Griffin won't wither under that kind of punishment, but a referee will only allow the fighter to take so much punishment before he has to step in.

This fight, promises to be a memorable battle between two tested veterans. For the last few years, Ortiz, however, hasn't been the fighter he used to be. If he tries to stand with Griffin, or finds his take-down attempts stuffed all night long, Ortiz will lose either by a wide margin on the judge's scorecards or by knockout.

If, however, Griffin can't stop Ortiz's take-downs and winds up with his back to the mat for more than a few minutes of the fight, Ortiz may be able to finish him.

Testing Ortiz's Chin

The real question is, just what does Ortiz have left to carry into the octagon with him, a renewed dedication and the unstoppable power he showed in his earlier years, or just his reputation. With two knockout defeats for Ortiz leading into this fight, it's almost a given that Griffin will be looking to see if 37-year-old Ortiz has lost his chin.

A Clash of Personalities

In terms of personality, Griffin and Ortiz could not be any more different. Ortiz is flashy, takes pride in his bad boy reputation, and enjoys being famous at least as much as he enjoys being in the ring. In the past, it's been hard to tell if stepping into the octagon was more about being in the spotlight or being in a fight, for Ortiz. Although that seems to have been tempered somewhat as his ability to back up that braggadocio has declined.

Griffin, on the other hand, is all about the fight. He is quiet, well-mannered, and seems to prefer to keep to himself. He seems most at home when he's locked inside a chain-link fence with someone looking to take his head off. He likes fighting and I don't think it would make any difference to him if he had an audience of a million or if nobody watched at all.

Silva vs. Sonnen, UFC 148

In the first fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen, Sonnen beat Silva up, but Silva won the fight. Sonnen proved to be a better striker and a better wrestler than Silva. Silva on the other hand, proved to be a better martial artist.

First of all, let me say that since the earliest days of MMA fighting, I have always been amazed that every fight doesn't end in an early knock-out. The gloves worn offer no protection for the person being hit compared to bare knuckles in my opinion. They do, however, provide just enough protection for the puncher to allow him to wail away without fear of breaking his hands.

A skilled striker should win every MMA fight if, and only if, the fight stays off the mat for a minute or two, and the opponent does not have an absolutely superior striking defense. Judging from the fights that I've watched, though, far fewer MMA fighters than I'd expect have striking skills equal to even an average professional boxer.

Having said that, you might assume that I would choose Sonnen as the favorite against Silva. In the first fight, Sonnen proved that he could hit and hurt Silva when standing. Sonnen has also promised to "swing the big hammer" during Silva vs. Sonnen II.

Silva, however, is a smart fighter. He must know that he has to avoid Sonnen's fists. One punch from any fighter with power can take out any opponent. Look at the long list of former UFC champions who lost their titles by knockout for proof of that. Silva, with a 14-0 UFC record including 10 title defenses, knows the game.

It was calm under pressure and technical ground skills that won the fight for Silva in his first match with Sonnen. Yet, Sonnen dominated most of the fight on the ground-- right up until he lost. Sonnen's game in Silva vs. Sonnen I suffered from the stereotypical wrestler's fault of not being able to finish the fight. Although he punished Silva on the ground, he did not have the skills to put Silva away with a submission or choke out.

I expect two things from Sonnen in the two years since he first fought Silva. I expect that he has become a better finisher and will not suffer from the same weakness that kept him from winning the first fight. If Sonnen is confident in an improved ground game, then his pre-fight bluster about his big hammer is a strategic move to dupe Silva.

Despite the fact that Silva won the first fight on the ground, he is better known for his striking abilities. Even though Sonnen tagged him early and often in Silva vs. Sonnen I, Silva should have a strong advantage on his feet if he can keep this fight standing up.

Silva who fights from both a right and left-handed stance, should come out as a southpaw and launch the straight left right down the pike. He cannot, however, come out with his hands low as he did in the first fight. Sonnen does have power and trading punches while ignoring defense is a fool's game for Silva.

Silva vs. Sonnen II Prediction

My prediction for the fight is a first round knockout for Silva. There are, however, other ways that the fight could go.

If Silva is stupid or overconfident (which amounts to the same thing), then he might take his standing defense too lightly and end up getting knocked out or dazed enough to give Sonnen a strong ground advantage. If that happens, Silva should fire his trainers.

Sonnen's Weakness

In the first fight, Sonnen showed superior wrestling skills. In my opinion, this was somewhat deceptive. Sonnen has been submitted by MMA fighters with lesser jiu-jitsu skills than Silva. If Silva is smart, he has studied the film of Sonnen's previous losses and found his weaknesses on the ground.

In my opinion, Silva, while not the greatest grappler the UFC has ever known, is superior on the ground to Sonnen, primarily because of his defensive skills. I would not expect Silva to make a mistake and leave himself open to a quick submission. I can't say that of Sonnen based on his previous fights.

In a perfect world, Sonnen's trainers have pointed this out to him and he has worked hard to fix it. Sonnen, however, doesn't strike me as the guy who studies and works hard, but rather as the guy who seeks shortcuts and the easiest road. If it goes to the ground, look for Sonnen to be stronger and control the ground game, but look for him to be careless allowing the smarter, more patient, and more disciplined Silva to end the fight.

Standing Advantage: Silva. Ground Advantage: Silva.

I don't believe the fight will go the distance. Sonnen's only shot to win is a puncher's chance. If he connects, he could knock Silva out. I don't expect that to happen. Silva will either knock out Sonnen early or submit him later in the fight. The fight is over-hyped, Sonnen is a long-shot, at best. Silva is the more skilled fighter and as long as he avoids Sonnen's power, he should win easily.

Silva to Retire after Sonnen Fight?

As for any speculation that the 37-year-old Anderson Silva will retire if he defeats Sonnen again, to quote the champ himself, "Nope." Fighting and mano a mano competition is a driving hunger from which it is not easy to walk away. Silva will retire when the hunger dies, not before. If this 46-year-old sports writer knows anything, it is that the hunger for that ultimate challenge of personal combat does not die easily. For some, that desire can only be beaten out of us. Until someone beats the stuffing out of Silva and proves themselves superior in the octagon, he will continue to fight.