In the first fight between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen, Sonnen beat Silva up, but Silva won the fight. Sonnen proved to be a better striker and a better wrestler than Silva. Silva on the other hand, proved to be a better martial artist.
First of all, let me say that since the earliest days of MMA fighting, I have always been amazed that every fight doesn't end in an early knock-out. The gloves worn offer no protection for the person being hit compared to bare knuckles in my opinion. They do, however, provide just enough protection for the puncher to allow him to wail away without fear of breaking his hands.
A skilled striker should win every MMA fight if, and only if, the fight stays off the mat for a minute or two, and the opponent does not have an absolutely superior striking defense. Judging from the fights that I've watched, though, far fewer MMA fighters than I'd expect have striking skills equal to even an average professional boxer.
Having said that, you might assume that I would choose Sonnen as the favorite against Silva. In the first fight, Sonnen proved that he could hit and hurt Silva when standing. Sonnen has also promised to "swing the big hammer" during Silva vs. Sonnen II.
Silva, however, is a smart fighter. He must know that he has to avoid Sonnen's fists. One punch from any fighter with power can take out any opponent. Look at the long list of former UFC champions who lost their titles by knockout for proof of that. Silva, with a 14-0 UFC record including 10 title defenses, knows the game.
It was calm under pressure and technical ground skills that won the fight for Silva in his first match with Sonnen. Yet, Sonnen dominated most of the fight on the ground-- right up until he lost. Sonnen's game in Silva vs. Sonnen I suffered from the stereotypical wrestler's fault of not being able to finish the fight. Although he punished Silva on the ground, he did not have the skills to put Silva away with a submission or choke out.
I expect two things from Sonnen in the two years since he first fought Silva. I expect that he has become a better finisher and will not suffer from the same weakness that kept him from winning the first fight. If Sonnen is confident in an improved ground game, then his pre-fight bluster about his big hammer is a strategic move to dupe Silva.
Despite the fact that Silva won the first fight on the ground, he is better known for his striking abilities. Even though Sonnen tagged him early and often in Silva vs. Sonnen I, Silva should have a strong advantage on his feet if he can keep this fight standing up.
Silva who fights from both a right and left-handed stance, should come out as a southpaw and launch the straight left right down the pike. He cannot, however, come out with his hands low as he did in the first fight. Sonnen does have power and trading punches while ignoring defense is a fool's game for Silva.
Silva vs. Sonnen II Prediction
My prediction for the fight is a first round knockout for Silva. There are, however, other ways that the fight could go.
If Silva is stupid or overconfident (which amounts to the same thing), then he might take his standing defense too lightly and end up getting knocked out or dazed enough to give Sonnen a strong ground advantage. If that happens, Silva should fire his trainers.
Sonnen's Weakness
In the first fight, Sonnen showed superior wrestling skills. In my opinion, this was somewhat deceptive. Sonnen has been submitted by MMA fighters with lesser jiu-jitsu skills than Silva. If Silva is smart, he has studied the film of Sonnen's previous losses and found his weaknesses on the ground.
In my opinion, Silva, while not the greatest grappler the UFC has ever known, is superior on the ground to Sonnen, primarily because of his defensive skills. I would not expect Silva to make a mistake and leave himself open to a quick submission. I can't say that of Sonnen based on his previous fights.
In a perfect world, Sonnen's trainers have pointed this out to him and he has worked hard to fix it. Sonnen, however, doesn't strike me as the guy who studies and works hard, but rather as the guy who seeks shortcuts and the easiest road. If it goes to the ground, look for Sonnen to be stronger and control the ground game, but look for him to be careless allowing the smarter, more patient, and more disciplined Silva to end the fight.
Standing Advantage: Silva. Ground Advantage: Silva.
I don't believe the fight will go the distance. Sonnen's only shot to win is a puncher's chance. If he connects, he could knock Silva out. I don't expect that to happen. Silva will either knock out Sonnen early or submit him later in the fight. The fight is over-hyped, Sonnen is a long-shot, at best. Silva is the more skilled fighter and as long as he avoids Sonnen's power, he should win easily.
Silva to Retire after Sonnen Fight?
As for any speculation that the 37-year-old Anderson Silva will retire if he defeats Sonnen again, to quote the champ himself, "Nope." Fighting and mano a mano competition is a driving hunger from which it is not easy to walk away. Silva will retire when the hunger dies, not before. If this 46-year-old sports writer knows anything, it is that the hunger for that ultimate challenge of personal combat does not die easily. For some, that desire can only be beaten out of us. Until someone beats the stuffing out of Silva and proves themselves superior in the octagon, he will continue to fight.
First of all, let me say that since the earliest days of MMA fighting, I have always been amazed that every fight doesn't end in an early knock-out. The gloves worn offer no protection for the person being hit compared to bare knuckles in my opinion. They do, however, provide just enough protection for the puncher to allow him to wail away without fear of breaking his hands.
A skilled striker should win every MMA fight if, and only if, the fight stays off the mat for a minute or two, and the opponent does not have an absolutely superior striking defense. Judging from the fights that I've watched, though, far fewer MMA fighters than I'd expect have striking skills equal to even an average professional boxer.
Having said that, you might assume that I would choose Sonnen as the favorite against Silva. In the first fight, Sonnen proved that he could hit and hurt Silva when standing. Sonnen has also promised to "swing the big hammer" during Silva vs. Sonnen II.
Silva, however, is a smart fighter. He must know that he has to avoid Sonnen's fists. One punch from any fighter with power can take out any opponent. Look at the long list of former UFC champions who lost their titles by knockout for proof of that. Silva, with a 14-0 UFC record including 10 title defenses, knows the game.
It was calm under pressure and technical ground skills that won the fight for Silva in his first match with Sonnen. Yet, Sonnen dominated most of the fight on the ground-- right up until he lost. Sonnen's game in Silva vs. Sonnen I suffered from the stereotypical wrestler's fault of not being able to finish the fight. Although he punished Silva on the ground, he did not have the skills to put Silva away with a submission or choke out.
I expect two things from Sonnen in the two years since he first fought Silva. I expect that he has become a better finisher and will not suffer from the same weakness that kept him from winning the first fight. If Sonnen is confident in an improved ground game, then his pre-fight bluster about his big hammer is a strategic move to dupe Silva.
Despite the fact that Silva won the first fight on the ground, he is better known for his striking abilities. Even though Sonnen tagged him early and often in Silva vs. Sonnen I, Silva should have a strong advantage on his feet if he can keep this fight standing up.
Silva who fights from both a right and left-handed stance, should come out as a southpaw and launch the straight left right down the pike. He cannot, however, come out with his hands low as he did in the first fight. Sonnen does have power and trading punches while ignoring defense is a fool's game for Silva.
Silva vs. Sonnen II Prediction
My prediction for the fight is a first round knockout for Silva. There are, however, other ways that the fight could go.
If Silva is stupid or overconfident (which amounts to the same thing), then he might take his standing defense too lightly and end up getting knocked out or dazed enough to give Sonnen a strong ground advantage. If that happens, Silva should fire his trainers.
Sonnen's Weakness
In the first fight, Sonnen showed superior wrestling skills. In my opinion, this was somewhat deceptive. Sonnen has been submitted by MMA fighters with lesser jiu-jitsu skills than Silva. If Silva is smart, he has studied the film of Sonnen's previous losses and found his weaknesses on the ground.
In my opinion, Silva, while not the greatest grappler the UFC has ever known, is superior on the ground to Sonnen, primarily because of his defensive skills. I would not expect Silva to make a mistake and leave himself open to a quick submission. I can't say that of Sonnen based on his previous fights.
In a perfect world, Sonnen's trainers have pointed this out to him and he has worked hard to fix it. Sonnen, however, doesn't strike me as the guy who studies and works hard, but rather as the guy who seeks shortcuts and the easiest road. If it goes to the ground, look for Sonnen to be stronger and control the ground game, but look for him to be careless allowing the smarter, more patient, and more disciplined Silva to end the fight.
Standing Advantage: Silva. Ground Advantage: Silva.
I don't believe the fight will go the distance. Sonnen's only shot to win is a puncher's chance. If he connects, he could knock Silva out. I don't expect that to happen. Silva will either knock out Sonnen early or submit him later in the fight. The fight is over-hyped, Sonnen is a long-shot, at best. Silva is the more skilled fighter and as long as he avoids Sonnen's power, he should win easily.
Silva to Retire after Sonnen Fight?
As for any speculation that the 37-year-old Anderson Silva will retire if he defeats Sonnen again, to quote the champ himself, "Nope." Fighting and mano a mano competition is a driving hunger from which it is not easy to walk away. Silva will retire when the hunger dies, not before. If this 46-year-old sports writer knows anything, it is that the hunger for that ultimate challenge of personal combat does not die easily. For some, that desire can only be beaten out of us. Until someone beats the stuffing out of Silva and proves themselves superior in the octagon, he will continue to fight.
I hope Silva does take him out, but Sonnen would be one of the few guys out there that could pull off the upset. Silva to win and hopefully set up a fight with St. Pierre once he gets back. Now that would be an awesome battle!!
ReplyDeleteIf Sonnen does pull out a win, I think it will be because Silva didn't train smart enough and did not come into the fight with the right game plan. I'm always frstrated whn fighters choose stupid strategies, as in the first Sugar Ray Leonard - Roberto Duran fight in which Leonard wanted to prove he was tough and could stand toe-to-toe with the Hands of Stone. Leonard's game wasn't throwing big power and letting people hit him (except for that fight), he was technician, dismantling opponents piece by piece while frustrating their offense. When he fought Duran the second time, he seemed to remember that and the outcome was decidedly different.
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